Capital Economics: Non-farm payroll data must be much lower than expected to make the Federal Reserve more dovish

Olivia Cross of Capital Economics said in a note that a "significant decline" in non-farm payrolls would be necessary this week for the Fed to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points next week. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expect job creation to slow to 100,000 from 254,000 in September because of the hurricanes and strikes. Cross said the data would need to be much lower than expected to make the Fed more dovish. Cross, on the other hand, sees upside risks to inflation, another reason for the Fed to be cautious.