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法兴银行:美联储将继续降息导致短期利率下降,关税和财政赤字推高长期利率

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2024-11-29 16:58:29
法兴银行预测,到2025年底,10年期美债收益率将升至4.5%,而2年期美债收益率将降至3.5%。原因是美联储将继续降息会降低短期利率,但也会通过刺激经济和增加财政赤字,促使长期国债的需求增加,导致长期收益率上升。另外,特朗普关税计划可能推高通胀预期,加之美国政府为了应对财政赤字,预计将增加国债的发行量,均会推高收益率。
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