The Fed's latest meeting notes will be released at 2 am Beijing time on Thursday

The Fed's latest meeting notes, to be released at 2am Beijing time on Thursday, detail the discussions at its March 19-20 policy meeting, when the Fed kept its base rate in the 4.25-4.50 per cent range and signalled three 25 basis point rate cuts this year.
However, times have changed and the market landscape has changed dramatically. US stocks have tumbled since Mr. Trump unleashed his global tariff plans on April 2, with several economists warning of a possible recession this year. Mr. Powell took a decidedly hawkish turn in his speech on April 4, warning that "we are facing a highly uncertain outlook and risk rising unemployment and inflation". The latest futures market data show traders have raised their expectations for four rate cuts this year.
The meeting notes, while reflecting pre-tariff policy considerations, shed light on the degree of consensus among Fed policymakers at the time. Ianna Appio, senior analyst at First Eagle Global Value, said: "At the March meeting, policymakers' forecasts for the economic outlook were significantly divergent."
Market analysts will also focus on the minutes' discussion of financial stability. Vulnerabilities in credit markets have increased and volatility has continued to rise since March. If the minutes show that the Fed was wary of latent risks to the financial system at the time, investors may need to reassess its policy resolve. (Jin Ten)