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Bitwise首席投资官:比特币或首次在市场回调中优于股票

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2025-04-15 10:22:34

Bitwise首席投资官深度解析:比特币展现历史性抗跌特性,或重塑避险资产格局



Bitwise资产管理公司首席投资官Matt Hougan近日发布重磅市场分析指出,比特币当前正展现出"明显区别于历次熊市"的独特价格行为特征。值得注意的是,在特朗普宣布新一轮关税政策引发全球市场剧烈震荡的背景下,比特币过去30日价格波动率仅为0.07%,创下加密货币史上罕见的稳定记录。



历史性突破:自2011年比特币突破1美元心理关口以来,该数字资产从未在全球市场系统性调整期间持续跑赢传统股票市场。但Hougan强调,2024年的市场表现可能正在改写这一历史规律。"企业资产负债表(如MicroStrategy)、主权财富基金(如挪威政府养老基金)以及ETF机构投资者的持续涌入,正在重构比特币的市场定位。"



范式转变:报告特别指出,比特币正在经历从"高风险投机资产"向"数字黄金2.0"的定位转型。Glasschain数据显示,2024年Q2机构持有比特币数量同比激增217%,同期CME比特币期货未平仓合约量突破120亿美元,这些迹象都佐证着市场成熟度的质变。



投资者启示:

1. 配置价值:可能降低投资组合的贝塔系数

2. 政策对冲:关税战等黑天鹅事件中的新避险选择

3. 流动性升级:机构参与度提升或减弱传统"圣诞效应"波动

4. 估值重构:需重新评估比特币与美股相关性系数(当前降至0.31)



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