分析：美元和美债可能在近期抛售潮过后反弹
2025-04-15 11:37:57
凯投宏观首席经济学家乔纳斯•戈尔特曼最新报告：美元与美债将迎反弹周期
凯投宏观（Capital Economics）首席经济学家乔纳斯•戈尔特曼（Jonas Goltermann）在最新发布的宏观经济研究报告中指出，尽管特朗普政府提出的"对等关税"政策短期内引发美元指数和美国国债价格显著下挫，但两大核心资产有望在未来3-6个月内实现价值修复。
报告分析认为，当前市场波动主要源于贸易政策不确定性导致的避险情绪变化。具体表现为：
- 全球投资者短期减持美元资产，反映对"避风港"地位的信心波动
- 10年期美债收益率曲线异动显示市场过度反应
- 衍生品市场对冲需求激增形成技术性抛压
核心支撑因素：
1. 美国经济基本面仍保持韧性，NBER衰退概率模型显示全面衰退风险低于35%
2. CME利率期货定价显示美联储2024年维持现有利率水平的概率达78%
3. 相较欧元区和日本，美国保持150-200个基点的利差优势
对投资者的关键影响：
• 固定收益投资者可关注美债收益率曲线正常化带来的期限套利机会
• 外汇交易者需警惕美元指数技术性反弹的轧空行情
• 长期配置型资金可借市场波动分批建仓30年期抗通胀债券(TIPS)
• 需持续跟踪美国中期选举政策风向及G20国家央行资产负债表变化
（数据来源：金十数据/凯投宏观季度报告）
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