Japan's Monex Securities pointed out that the Bank of Japan will almost certainly keep its policy rate unchanged next week in light of the sharp rise in global uncertainty. The impact of Trump's April 2 tariff policy has already killed the prospect of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan in the short term. The focus of the meeting is likely to be the outlook report. Inflation remains high and wage negotiations confirm that price pressures are still rooted in wage growth dynamics. How policymakers balance inflation with heightened global uncertainty will be key to the path of interest rates going forward. We still expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates again later this year. We are currently low in confidence for a rate hike in September. We will revisit this forecast after the meeting. (Jin Ten)
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