Before the release of the PCE data, the probability that the Federal Reserve would maintain interest rates unchanged in May was 92.3%.

On April 30, according to CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in May is 94.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 5.7%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 35.9%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 60.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 3.6%.