Home > Quick > Body

CryptoQuant分析师:乐观预测比特币未来半年有望升至15万至17.5万美元

clock
2025-05-01 09:16:53

比特币未来6个月价格走势预测:三种情景分析及对投资者的影响



5月1日最新消息 - 知名区块链数据分析机构CryptoQuant首席分析师AxelAdlerJr发布重磅研究报告,对比特币(BTC)未来六个月的潜在价格走势进行了深度技术分析。报告指出,当前比特币链上数据已显现出明显的"牛市启动"信号,这为数字资产投资者提供了关键决策依据。



三大核心预测情景:



1. 乐观牛市情景(概率35%)

若链上动能指标突破1.0关键阈值并持续站稳,比特币可能开启史诗级上涨行情,目标价位看至15万-17.5万美元区间。这种情况通常伴随机构资金大规模入场和现货ETF持续净流入。



2. 平稳震荡情景(概率55%)

当指标维持在0.8-1.0区间波动时,比特币价格可能在9万-11万美元形成新的交易平台。这种走势适合波段操作者,但需警惕假突破风险。



3. 回调修正情景(概率10%)

若关键指标跌破0.75支撑位,可能引发短期持有者恐慌性抛售,导致价格回落至7万-8.5万美元支撑区域。这种情况往往与宏观政策收紧或黑天鹅事件相关。



分析师特别提示:考虑到比特币已完成4月的大级别调整,前两种看涨情景的实现概率合计高达90%,建议投资者重点关注链上指标变化。



对投资者的关键影响:


1. 长期持有者需关注15万美元关键阻力位

2. 短线交易者可把握9-11万美元区间波动机会

3. 风险厌恶型投资者应设置7万美元止损警戒线

4. 所有策略都需配合监测链上动能指标变化

Web3 Desktop Trading Tool
Stay ahead of the game in the cryptocurrency space.

7x24 Newsflash

22:00 2025-07-06
WTI crude oil opened down 1% at $64.95 a barrel.
WTI crude oil opened down 1% at $64.95 a barrel.
21:52 2025-07-06
Lutnik: Tariffs will take effect on August 1
On July 7, Trump said on Sunday that a number of trade deals had been reached with trading partners and that he would send letters to other countries informing them that tariff rates would be raised. U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnik told reporters that the higher tariffs would take effect on August 1, but Trump "is working on rates and agreements right now." In April, Trump announced basic tariffs of 10 percent on most countries, as well as additional tariffs of up to 50 percent, though he later d...
21:29 2025-07-06
U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnik: Tariffs will take effect on August 1.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnik: Tariffs will take effect on August 1.
21:28 2025-07-06
Trump: Some agreements have been reached.
Trump: Some agreements have been reached.
21:28 2025-07-06
Trump: May send 12 or 15 letters related to tariffs on Monday.
Trump: May send 12 or 15 letters related to tariffs on Monday.
21:28 2025-07-06
Trump responded to Musk's establishment of a new political party: This behavior is ridiculous.
Trump responded to Musk's establishment of a new political party: This behavior is ridiculous.
21:17 2025-07-06
Mr. Bescent said countries without a deal would face tariffs from August 1 but denied that date was a "new deadline"
On July 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Vincent Bescent said on Sunday that tariffs announced in April this year will come back into effect on August 1 for countries that do not have a trade deal with the Trump administration. "President Trump will be sending a letter to some of our trading partners saying that if you do not act, then on August 1, your tariffs will return to the levels they were on April 2," Bescent said. On August 1, countries that do not have a deal will "receive a letter," he said...
21:00 2025-07-06
In the past 24 hours, the whole network contract was liquidated at 108 million US dollars, and the main explosion was multiple orders
Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market's entire network contract was liquidated 108 million dollars, of which multiple orders were liquidated 33.3242 million dollars, and short orders were liquidated 74.7346 million dollars. The total amount of BTC liquidated positions was 14.4941 million dollars, and the total amount of ETH liquidated positions was 2293.87 million dollars.
20:57 2025-07-06
According to local residents, explosions were heard at the port of Hodeida in Yemen.
According to local residents, explosions were heard at the port of Hodeida in Yemen.
20:32 2025-07-06
U.S. Treasury Secretary Vincent Bescent: Musk should stay out of politics
On July 7th, US Treasury Secretary Vincent Bescent believes that Musk should stay away from politics and focus on managing the companies he controls. Musk has previously posted on social media that he will create a new party, called the American Party, after the US Congress passes the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which includes tax cuts and expenses, to avoid the bankruptcy of the United States. Bescent said that the boards of companies managed by Musk, including Tesla and SpaceX, may want Musk to ...
20:02 2025-07-06
If Bitcoin breaks through 110,000 dollars, the cumulative clearing strength of mainstream CEX will reach 636 million
According to Coinglass data, if Bitcoin breaks through $110,000, the cumulative clearing strength of the mainstream CEX will reach 636 million. On the contrary, if Bitcoin falls below $107,000, the cumulative clearing strength of the mainstream CEX will reach $591 million.
19:20 2025-07-06
U.S. Treasury Secretary Vincent Bescent: Elon Musk should focus on business, not politics
Elon Musk should focus on business, not politics.