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机构预测:英国央行5月将降息,且今年将再降息3次

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2025-05-02 12:28:36

德意志银行高级经济学家桑杰·拉贾重磅预测:英国央行或开启四轮降息周期,首次降息将于5月启动



德意志银行高级经济学家桑杰·拉贾在其最新研究报告中发布重要市场预测:

• 首次降息:预计英国央行将在2024年5月实施首次降息,幅度为25个基点

• 后续路径:随后可能在8月、11月和12月连续进行三次降息

• 政策转向:随着英国通胀压力持续缓解,劳动力市场出现宽松信号,不排除加速降息可能



宏观经济背景分析:

英国近期经济数据显示:

- 通胀水平呈现稳步下降趋势

- 就业市场紧张状况有所缓解

- 经济增长动能减弱



政策前瞻:

报告特别强调,考虑到当前经济环境的高度不确定性,英国货币政策委员会(MPC)可能在未来数月为更激进的政策转向做好准备,包括:

✓ 更快的降息节奏

✓ 更大幅度的基准利率下调



对投资者的潜在影响:

1. 债券市场:英债收益率可能进一步下行,债券价格看涨

2. 外汇市场:英镑汇率或面临贬值压力

3. 股票市场:利率敏感板块(如房地产、科技)可能受益

4. 资产配置:投资者需重新评估英国资产的风险收益比

5. 套利交易:利差收窄可能影响套利策略收益



(消息来源:金十数据)

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