美CFTC撤回对加密预测平台的上诉，Kalshi称“选举合约将持续存在”
2025-05-06 19:47:05
Kalshi宣布CFTC撤销对加密预测平台的上诉：选举合约合法性获关键进展
美国领先的预测市场平台Kalshi近日在其官方X平台账号发布重要公告，确认美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）已正式撤回针对该平台的上诉请求。这一决定标志着加密预测市场在监管合规道路上取得突破性进展。
事件背景：
2023年，CFTC曾向法院提交紧急动议，试图阻止Kalshi平台推出与2024年11月美国总统大选结果挂钩的预测市场合约。监管机构当时声称此类合约可能涉及"非法赌博活动"。
司法裁决：
此次监管立场的转变源于此前联邦法院的一项关键裁决。法官明确指出，CFTC在试图禁止Kalshi提供选举预测合约时"明显超越了其法定监管权限"。这一裁决为预测市场的合法运营提供了重要司法背书。
监管态度转变：
值得注意的是，CFTC委员Summer K. Mersinger早在2024年2月就曾公开表态："选举合约将持续存在。"这一言论已预示监管机构可能调整立场。Kalshi平台在最新声明中重申："选举市场将继续存在"，彰显其对业务模式的信心。
对投资者的潜在影响：
1. 监管确定性提升： 降低政策风险，增强市场信心
2. 产品创新加速： 可能推动更多政治/事件类衍生品问世
3. 流动性改善： 机构投资者参与度有望提高
4. 估值重估： 预测市场类平台投资价值或将被重新评估
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