Guotai Junan Futures Energy Joint Research

Gold Ten Futures special Guotai Junan Futures analysis: Domestic refineries have continued to repair their profits after the oil price fell from March to April, and they have different degrees and forms of point-price stocking. Raw material inventories have rebounded to a certain extent from previous lows, and the expectation of plant resumption has increased slightly. From the perspective of crude oil procurement channels, the adverse impact of recent geopolitical risks is obvious, or it may weaken the profits of the medium and long-term industry. According to the industrial chain and varieties, the local refining in Shandong, Northeast China, and East China is short-term, start-up, and stable, but the weak demand for refined oil and the disturbance of raw materials inhibit the medium and long-term capacity utilization rate. North China is different, and is relatively more cautious due to the impact of raw material In terms of chemical light oil processing, aromatics valuations have returned to fundamentals, narrowing the internal and external arbitrage window; in terms of olefins, ethane procurement is cautious under tariff policy fluctuations, and propane may be diverted to Middle East sources. Policy integration and allocation will remain the focus of future attention.