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美元指数回补跳空高开缺口后快速反抽,但仅仅是震荡格局的一部分。美债收益率的强势与美元走势不符,或暗示崩跌风险正在酝酿......

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2025-05-15 04:07:00

美元指数技术分析:回补缺口后反抽乏力,震荡格局下暗藏崩跌风险?



美元指数在回补周一跳空高开缺口后快速反抽,但反弹力度明显不足,目前仍处于104.50-105.50的震荡区间内运行。值得注意的是,美债收益率近期持续走强(10年期美债收益率突破4.30%关键阻力),但美元指数却未能同步走强,这种罕见的背离现象可能预示着市场正在酝酿重大变盘风险。






关键市场信号解读:


1. 技术面呈现"上升楔形"形态,通常预示反转下跌风险

2. CME美元期货持仓显示投机净多头连续三周下降

3. 美联储官员鸽派言论削弱美元加息预期支撑








对投资者的影响警示:


• 外汇交易者需警惕美元突然破位下行风险

• 美股投资者注意美元走弱可能提振风险资产

• 大宗商品市场或迎来美元计价品种的反弹机会

• 债券投资者应关注收益率与美元背离的持续性



(技术面与基本面背离往往预示重大行情转折,建议投资者提升风险防御等级)

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