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渣打银行:美SEC数据支持比特币在2028年达到50万美元目标

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2025-05-20 12:39:42

渣打银行外汇及加密货币研究主管Geoff Kendrick最新分析指出,美国证券交易委员会(SEC)13F机构持仓报告释放关键信号——比特币或将在2028年底冲击50万美元历史高位。该预测获得三方面数据支撑:




核心数据洞察:



  • 虽然2024年Q1机构直接持有的比特币ETF份额出现5-7%的技术性回调

  • 但政府背景投资机构对MicroStrategy(现更名为Strategy)的持仓量逆势增长12%

  • Strategy作为纳斯达克上市公司,其股票被机构视为合规的比特币替代投资通道




市场影响分析:


这一持仓结构调整反映出:在SEC尚未批准现货比特币ETF的监管环境下,传统金融机构正通过上市公司股票等创新工具获取加密货币风险敞口。渣打银行认为,这种"曲线投资"策略将持续到比特币现货ETF获得全面监管批准。




投资者启示:



  1. 机构配置需求验证:即使存在监管障碍,机构仍在寻找合规途径配置加密资产

  2. 长期价格锚定:主流金融机构的50万美元目标价可能形成市场心理预期

  3. 替代工具溢价:Strategy等合规标的可能持续获得制度性溢价

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