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野村:美元或因美国例外主义消退及其他因素进一步走弱

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2025-06-02 05:41:49

野村证券深度报告:美元疲软趋势或延续至2024年,多重因素加剧看跌预期



野村证券研究团队发布最新外汇市场分析报告指出,美元指数可能面临持续贬值压力,这一趋势预计将延续至2024年下半年。报告强调,美国经济"例外主义"光环的消退是推动美元走弱的核心因素。



三大关键驱动因素:

1. 美国双赤字风险加剧 - 财政赤字与经常账户赤字同步扩大

2. 全球资本流动转向 - 机构投资者正进行大规模资产重新配置

3. 政策不确定性 - 特朗普时期关税政策阴影及潜在非关税壁垒



亚洲市场特别关注:

分析师特别指出,区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)等亚洲贸易协议的深化可能产生三重效应:

- 推动估值偏低货币的价值重估

- 促进跨国资本回流亚洲市场

- 激发更活跃的外汇对冲需求



报告明确建议:"基于上述因素的叠加效应,我们强化做空美元/韩元的交易策略预期。"技术分析显示,美元/韩元汇率在未来数月可能下探1300关键支撑位。



对投资者的潜在影响:

1. 外汇交易者需重新评估美元多头仓位风险

2. 亚洲资产配置比例可能需要结构性调整

3. 出口导向型企业应加强汇率风险管理

4. 新兴市场债券可能获得额外估值支撑

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