Home > Quick > Body

经济学家:美联储可能在12月大幅降息

clock
2025-06-03 15:59:01

荷兰国际集团首席经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利:美联储或推迟至12月降息,但可能激进下调50个基点



荷兰国际集团(ING)全球宏观经济研究主管詹姆斯·奈特利(James Knightley)最新分析指出,美联储可能将首次降息时点推迟至12月,但届时可能采取更大幅度的50个基点利率下调。这位知名经济学家强调,近期加征关税带来的通胀压力将暂时抑制美联储的降息冲动。



关税政策的双重经济效应:

奈特利认为,虽然新关税会推高进口商品价格并短期推升通胀,但这种影响属于一次性冲击。随着关税效应被市场消化,通胀压力有望在第四季度显著缓解,这将为美联储创造宽松政策窗口。



货币市场预期与政策现实存在偏差:

当前美国货币市场交易显示,投资者普遍押注9月可能启动降息。但奈特利警告称,美联储更可能保持耐心,选择在年末通过更大幅度的降息(50个基点)来应对可能出现的经济放缓。



对投资者的关键影响:

1. 利率敏感资产波动加剧 - 债券收益率曲线可能进一步陡峭化

2. 美元短期走强风险 - 延迟降息或支撑美元汇率

3. 成长股估值压力 - 资金成本维持高位时间超预期

4. 年末流动性事件 - 大规模集中降息可能引发跨资产重新定价

Web3 Desktop Trading Tool
Stay ahead of the game in the cryptocurrency space.

7x24 Newsflash

04:43 2025-06-22
Houthis: Response to US attack on Iran'only a matter of time'
Houthi: Ceasefire with the US is before [it] goes to war with Iran, and our response to the US attack on Iran is "only a matter of time". (Golden Ten Data APP)
04:13 2025-06-22
US official: Iran has naval capability to block the Strait of Hormuz
According to the New York Times, a US official said that Iran has a variety of means to respond, including naval capabilities that would allow it to block the Strait of Hormuz.
04:10 2025-06-22
French Lawmaker Invites Jan3 Founder to Push for National Bitcoin Adoption Plan
On June 22nd, French MEP Sarah Knafo has invited Jan3 founder Samson Mow to visit France to discuss plans to establish a "strategic bitcoin reserve" for France and promote friendly regulation. Mow said she looks forward to setting off a "national bitcoin adoption wave" in France and across Europe. The move comes against the backdrop of increasing participation in bitcoin in the French public and private sectors, including the announcement of French state-owned bank Bpifrance to invest $27 millio...
03:36 2025-06-22
A whale address sold 3,158 ETH for $2,378, worth $7.51 million
According to Lookonchain, when the price of ETH fell, a whale address 0x3FF0 sold 3,158 $ETH for $2,378, worth $7.51 million.
03:24 2025-06-22
Iran: Only the above-ground part of the Fordo nuclear facility was damaged and can be repaired
According to Iran's Tasnim news agency, Menan Lehi, a representative of Qom province in the Iranian parliament, said early today (June 22) local time that, contrary to what US President Trump has claimed, Iran's Fordo nuclear facility has not been seriously damaged, and the main damage is the above-ground part, which can be repaired. He said that he believes that "all items that may pose a threat to nearby residents" in the facility have long been emptied, and there are no reports of nuclear rad...
03:18 2025-06-22
Democratic lawmakers are calling for Trump's impeachment
On the evening of June 21, local time, according to NBC, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Democrat of New York, said that President Trump's decision to attack Iran without authorization from Congress "absolutely and unequivocally constitutes grounds for impeachment." She said that the disastrous decision of the US president to bomb Iran without authorization seriously violated the Constitution and the war powers of Congress. (CCTV International News)
03:12 2025-06-22
Iran's Supreme Leader'advisor ': Iran should attack US fleet and close Strait of Hormuz
According to CNN, a key adviser to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is calling for missile strikes on US naval vessels and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transport route. "After the US attack on the Fordo nuclear facility, it is now our turn to act," warned Hossein Shariatmadari, editor-in-chief of Iran's newspaper Le Monde. A prominent conservative voice, he has previously claimed to be the "representative" of Supreme Leader Khamenei....
03:08 2025-06-22
Iran's Supreme Leader'advisor ': Iran should attack US fleet and close Strait of Hormuz
On June 22, according to CNN, a key adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is calling for missile attacks on US naval ships and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transportation route. "After the US attack on the Fordo nuclear facility, it is now our turn to act," warned Hossein Shariatmadari, editor-in-chief of Iran's newspaper Le Monde. A prominent conservative voice, he has previously claimed to be a "representative" of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. "As a firs...
03:06 2025-06-22
A giant whale added 17,070 ETH worth $39.57 million after the price of ETH fell
According to Lookonchain monitoring, the giant whale 0xd8d0, which previously made more than $30 million in ETH, bought another 17,070 ETH (worth $39.57 million) after the ETH price fell. Since June 11, the giant whale has spent 333.79 million USDC to buy 132,536 ETH at an average price of $2,518. The current book loss is about $33.60 million.
02:58 2025-06-22
The Israeli Airports Authority has closed national airspace, citing the development.
The Israeli Airports Authority has closed national airspace, citing the development.
02:57 2025-06-22
In the past 12 hours, the whole network exploded 629 million US dollars, and the main explosion was multiple orders
The data shows that in the past 12 hours, the whole network liquidated 629 million dollars, of which multiple single liquidated 563 million dollars, empty single liquidated 65.8483 million dollars, and the main explosion of multiple orders. Among them, ETH liquidated 269 million dollars, and BTC liquidated 149 million dollars.
02:51 2025-06-22
Important reminder
The desktop version is newly launched, you can download, install and use it on your computer. (You can get the download address in the upper right corner of the Jin10.com page)