European Central Bank interest rate decision and Lagarde's speech highlights - the statement basically maintained the wording of the future interest rate path, Lagarde hinted that the interest rate cut cycle will end
< br > Interest rate decision: < br > < span class = "section-news" > < b > 1. Interest rate decision: cut interest rates by 25 BP as scheduled, maintaining its language on the future path of interest rates; one member did not support the decision. < br > < span class = "section-news" > 2. Economic expectations: GDP growth expectations in 2025 remain unchanged, and GDP growth expectations in 2026 are reduced from 1.2% to 1.1%. < br > < span class = "section-news" > < b > 3. Inflation expectations: inflation expectations in 2025 and 2026 are reduced from 2.3% and 1.9% to 2.0% and 1.6%, respectively. < br > < span class = "section-news" > 4. Trade situation: trade escalation will lead to a slowdown in economic growth and inflation; trade policy uncertainty will affect investment and exports. < br > < span class = "section-news" > 5. Market reaction: The euro continues to rise, traders increase expectations for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates, and it is expected to drop another 33 basis points this year. < br > Lagarde press conference: < br > < span class = "section-news" > < b > 1. Forward Guidance: The policy (rate cut) cycle is nearing its end, which is not a confirmation of a policy pause; the neutral interest rate has not been discussed. < br > < span class = "section-news" > 2. Inflation Outlook: The central bank is doing quite well in dealing with inflation, with most long-term inflation expectations remaining around 2%. < br > < span class = "section-news" > 3. Economic Expectations: Trade tensions may reduce economic growth, and the risks to economic growth are skewed to the downside. < br > < span class = "section-news" > 4. Tariffs: The impact of supply chain disruptions was widely discussed; tariffs and the appreciation of the euro will make exports more difficult. < br > < span class = "section-news" > 5. Other remarks: Lagarde is determined to complete her term at the European Central Bank.
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