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德意志银行:长期高利率可能打击美国企业借款人

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2025-06-09 16:02:59

德意志银行深度分析:美联储推迟降息如何冲击美国企业及投资者



德意志银行策略团队发布最新研究报告警告称,美联储推迟降息政策的连锁反应正在形成,随着时间推移,借贷成本持续攀升将对企业经营造成显著冲击。报告特别指出,当前市场对经济软着陆的乐观预期掩盖了潜在风险。



报告强调:"虽然目前不良资产交易所主导的违约处理方式维持了较高回收率,但这种局面可能难以持续。"策略师们认为,在通胀顽固高于目标值货币政策不确定性加剧以及主权债券期限溢价持续上升的三重压力下,经济实现软着陆的概率正在快速下降。



德意志银行预测模型显示,投机级信贷市场将首当其冲,违约率可能在2025年年中飙升至5.5%。这一数字意味着发行人加权的投机级违约率将创下2012年以来最高纪录,反映出信用风险正在急剧累积。



对投资者的影响分析:

1. 固定收益投资者需警惕高收益债券市场违约潮风险

2. 股票投资者应关注企业融资成本上升对盈利的侵蚀

3. 私募资本可能迎来不良资产投资机会窗口

4. 主权财富基金需要重新评估美元资产配置策略

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