Richard Clarida, former vice-chairperson of the US Federal Reserve, has warned that the battle against inflation is not over. Inflation data since January has indeed been better than expected, but the combination of rising inventories and new tariffs has yet to be fully felt. Richard Clarida pointed out that the effective tariff rate faced by US consumers reached 15.6% in June, the highest since 1937, and could send inflation climbing to the 3% range in the short term. The Fed's last set of forecasts was released at its March meeting, before the "Liberation Day" tariffs shocked markets and global trading partners. Against this backdrop, Richard Clarida said the real question was whether the Fed still expected to approve two rate cuts this year or cut them to just one.
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