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10年期美债收益率本周累跌超7个基点

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2025-06-20 22:00:47

美国国债收益率持续下行释放关键信号:美联储政策转向预期强化



周五(6月20日)纽约尾盘交易时段,美国10年期基准国债收益率下跌1.57个基点至4.3751%,连续第三周呈现下行趋势,本周累计跌幅达7.11个基点。全周交易区间维持在4.4443%-4.3377%,显示出市场对长期利率的看空情绪持续升温。



更受货币政策敏感的两年期美债收益率同步走低,当日下挫3.337个基点至3.9077%,周线累计下跌5.87个基点。尽管周初受美股开盘影响短暂冲高至3.9749%,但在周三美联储公布FOMC决议后迅速逆转,利率点阵图暗示2024年降息预期导致收益率急剧下探至3.8824%的周内低点。



对投资者的三重影响:

1. 固定收益组合再平衡压力:收益率持续走低将压缩债券投资回报,迫使机构调整久期策略

2. 风险资产配置转移:降息预期可能推动资金从债市转向股市,尤其利好成长股估值

3. 外汇市场波动风险:美债收益率优势收窄或削弱美元吸引力,需警惕跨境资本流动冲击

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