Arthur Hayes: Between now and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Fed meeting in August, the market will trade sideways to a slightly lower level

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, said that the market will trade sideways to slightly lower levels between now and the time Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole Fed conference in August. If the TGA replenishment proves to be bad for dollar liquidity, then the downside is between $90,000 and $95,000. If the replenishment proves to be pointless, Bitcoin will hover around $100,000 without breaking the all-time high of $112,000. I have a feeling that Powell will announce the end of quantitative tightening and/or other seemingly mundane but significant banking regulatory reforms. By early September, the debt ceiling will be raised, the TGA largely replenished, and Republicans will focus on delivering benefits so they don't get hit by Mamdani in their own districts in November 2026, when the Green Doji (K-line) will pierce the bears, fueled by a surge in currency issuance.