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中金解读金融政策调整:互换便利可能导致央行扩表

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2024-09-24 23:49:44
9月25日讯,中金评9月24日国新办举行新闻发布会上公布的政策,本次降息综合将为实体经济减轻付息负担6900亿元左右(年化),全年付息负担可能减少1.3万亿元(年化,GDP的1%左右)。降准幅度不止满足目前信贷扩张和既有财政发力的需求,可能部分用来置换MLF,也可能为潜在的财政发力做准备。互换便利对央行资产负债表和基础货币的影响要复杂一些:互换便利可能导致央行扩表(央票或者央行在二级市场购买国债),央行在二级市场购买国债将带来基础货币投放。如果没有基础货币投放,互换便利可能通过资产再平衡效应影响股债的价格。后续如果财政政策加大力度,投向方面也提高效率,市场信心将进一步提高,经济增长也将得到有效提振。
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