The IEA cut its oil demand forecast as U.S. tariffs weigh on economic growth

Oil demand growth is expected to be lower than previously thought as escalating global trade tensions triggered by US President Donald Trump's tariffs weigh on the global economy, according to the IEA's monthly report. "Aggressive trade negotiations and a bumpy ride for the oil market are expected during the next 90-day (or even longer) tariff reprieve period, with considerable uncertainty in our forecasts for this year and next," the IEA said. The IEA revised the economic growth assumptions underpinning its oil demand forecasts, lowering its global GDP forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to around 2.4 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively from 3.1 per cent previously. As a result, global oil demand growth this year is expected to be adjusted from the previous 1.03 million barrels per day to 726,000 barrels per day, averaging 103.50 million barrels per day. Growth is expected to slow further to 692,000 barrels per day next year.