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Trump Still Favored by Crypto Bettors to Win Election, Despite Guilty Verdict

2024-05-31 06:51:18

The news of Donald Trump's guilty verdicts in a New York courtroom Thursday dominated global headlines, but for crypto holders gambling on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November, nothing has fundamentally changed.

Over $142 million is riding on “Presidential Election Winner 2024,” the top political wager on crypto betting site Polymarket—which, notably, is not officially available to U.S. residents. For more than a week, Trump's odds of winning has held stable at about 56%, mirroring many mainstream political polls.

After the verdict was announced, live odds meandered between 53% and 55%, where it stands as of this writing.

No immediate hit on Trump's @Polymarket odds. pic.twitter.com/5QggZQbcTd

— mhonkasalo (@mhonkasalo) May 30, 2024

There were many separate betting markets set up for the trial on the Polymarket site. Just prior to the jury's delivery of its across-the-board guilty verdicts for the former president, users collectively saw a 77 percent chance of a conviction. Only $204,000 was riding on this particular wager, however, which remains open for dispute for another hour as of this writing.

More than four times that amount—$800,000—is riding on whether Trump will be in jail before election day—and those odds only rose slightly after the verdict was announced. While it rose from a stable 14% chance earlier Thursday to as high as 20% moments after the news broke, the odds have settled to 17% currently.

The collective shrug on Polymarket was a bit of a contrast to the response on Crypto Twitter, with some declaring Trump's verdict nothing short of a call for revolution.

“Buy guns. Buy Bitcoin. Move to a red state,“ exhorted Ryan Selkis, founder and CEO of crypto research outfit Messari. “The U.S. Constitution has fallen.”

Messari, who's currently pinned tweet declares that “Donald Trump is building a crypto army,” continued: “If you care about crypto and the republic, donate crypto to the Trump campaign.”

Buy guns. Buy Bitcoin. Move to a red state. The U.S. Constitution has fallen.

— Ryan Selkis (d/acc) 🇺🇸 (@twobitidiot) May 30, 2024

Adam Cochrane, partner at Cinneamhain Ventures, took a starkly opposing tack, tweeting that the verdict proves that Trump is “a criminal grifter who tells you he’s anti-establishment to fleece you.”

A twice impeached, convicted felon, found guilty by a jury of his peers on 34 criminal counts, and previously found civilly liable for fraud, contract breech, defamation, sexual assault and battery, is running for President.

But your worried the other guy is old?

Trump is happy… https://t.co/CxidtO3v7j

— Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) (@adamscochran) May 30, 2024

As for the impact of the verdict on political meme coins, tokens supporting Trump did drop on the news. That was confusing to some, as many believe the conviction will only help Trump's chances.

this trump news seems bullish for trump’s odds of getting elected. like it’s the underdog vs the establishment type of story

not sure why the polifi coins reacted in the exact opposite way. makes no sense

— qw (@QwQiao) May 30, 2024

As the dust settles, that may be the conventional wisdom: the $TRUMP token has rebounded in the past hour, and the brief gains seen for $BODEN have evaporated.

Edited by Ryan Ozawa.