Goldman Sachs: If the economy does fall into recession, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 200 BP next year.

Goldman Sachs has revised its expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, arguing that if a recession hits, the risk of further easing by the Federal Reserve is higher. Goldman now expects the Federal Reserve to start a series of rate cuts in June - earlier than previously forecast in July - as part of a preventive easing cycle. Under the assumption that the US avoids recession, the Fed will cut interest rates three times in a row by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate down to a range of 3.5% -3.75%. However, if the economy does fall into recession, Goldman expects the Fed to adopt a more aggressive policy response, cutting rates by about 200 basis points next year. Given the increased likelihood of a recession, the agency's current weighted forecast shows a total of 130 basis points of interest rate cuts in 2025, up from 105 basis points previously. As of Friday's close, this outlook was largely in line with current market expectations. (Jin Ten)