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分析师:在关税政策下,美国普通家庭平均承担额外的775美元成本

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2025-04-07 18:01:56

瑞银(UBS)分析师在最新发布的行业研究报告中指出,零售行业面临关税压力时,成本分摊将呈现非均衡分布。尽管供应商、零售商和消费者三方预计将共同承担约30%的关税成本,但实际传导机制存在显著非线性特征






关键发现:

• 关税税率每提升10%,消费者承担比例将指数级增长15-20%

• 典型美国家庭将面临年均775美元的消费支出增长

• 受影响最严重的是年收入≤10万美元家庭(占美国家庭总数67%)






投资者影响分析:

1. 零售板块估值压力:必需消费品企业可能面临利润率压缩

2. 消费分级现象:中低端零售渠道或出现客流量下滑

3. 供应链重构:跨国零售商可能加速东南亚产能转移

4. 通胀预期管理:美联储政策路径可能影响消费类股票估值






(消息来源:金十数据 | 瑞银证券研究部)

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