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黄金破高后回调,面对美联储“言语风暴”还能挺住?美元技术形态走弱,关键数据成多空分水岭?鲍威尔“椅子不稳”、特朗普急谈关税, 黄金盯紧这场“双重博弈”...

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2025-04-19 15:00:05

黄金价格突破历史高点后震荡回调:美联储鹰派言论冲击下能否守住关键支撑?



近期黄金市场呈现剧烈波动行情,在创出历史新高后进入技术性回调阶段。随着美联储释放更强硬的货币政策信号,贵金属市场正面临严峻考验。多位联储官员接连发表鹰派言论,暗示可能推迟降息时间表,这对无息资产黄金构成直接压力。



美元指数技术面显露疲态:本周重磅经济数据或成市场转折点



美元指数日线级别出现明显顶背离形态,MACD指标持续走弱,显示短期上涨动能不足。本周将公布的CPI通胀数据和零售销售报告,可能成为决定美元和黄金后续走势的关键催化剂。市场普遍预期若数据不及预期,将强化美联储降息预期,从而利好黄金。



政治不确定性加剧:鲍威尔连任悬念与特朗普关税政策双重扰动



美联储主席鲍威尔的连任前景突生变数,政治因素的介入可能影响货币政策独立性。与此同时,前总统特朗普重提大幅提高关税的竞选主张,地缘政治风险溢价再度升温。黄金作为传统避险资产,正密切跟踪这场货币政策与政治风险的双重博弈。



对投资者的关键影响:

1. 短期波动率可能维持高位,建议控制仓位风险

2. 关注200日均线支撑位,技术面交易者可等待企稳信号

3. 长期投资者可考虑分批建仓,对冲潜在通胀风险

4. 密切跟踪美联储官员讲话及经济数据发布时间节点



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