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Polymarket上预测“马斯克今年年底前创建新政党”的概率报42%

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2025-07-04 03:13:37

马斯克创建新政党概率飙升:Polymarket与Kalshi平台最新预测数据解读



根据全球领先的预测市场平台Polymarket最新数据显示,"马斯克2023年底前创建新政党"的预测概率已攀升至42%,较上月增长15个百分点。与此同时,美国CFTC监管的预测平台Kalshi显示,该事件的概率现报35%,两大平台数据均显示市场对马斯克政坛动向持乐观态度。



这一预测升温源于近期重大政治进展:特朗普推动的"美丽大法案"已于今日凌晨在众议院获得通过,并将于本周六凌晨5点正式签署。值得注意的是,马斯克曾于7月1日明确表态:"若'美丽大法案'通过,将在次日成立美国新政党",这一承诺为当前市场预测提供了直接依据。



更早的6月6日,马斯克在其拥有1.5亿粉丝的社交媒体平台发起民意调查,询问"是否应该创建代表中间80%群体的新政党"。该投票获得563万用户参与,80.4%压倒性支持率展现出民众对政治革新的强烈诉求。



对投资者的潜在影响:

1. 政治不确定性或引发科技股短期波动

2. 新能源政策可能面临调整风险

3. 社交媒体平台监管环境或将变化

4. 新兴政治力量可能带来基建投资新机遇

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