QCP Capital：市场对美联储降息预期升温，年初仅预计一次降息，现上调至四次
2025-03-12 09:54:03
3月12日市场快讯：全球贸易紧张局势升级，市场波动加剧
QCP Capital最新市场分析显示，全球贸易紧张局势持续升级，市场情绪承压。4月2日或将实施的新一轮关税政策引发广泛关注。今日生效的25%钢铁与铝关税已招致欧盟反制，欧盟计划自4月起实施260亿欧元（220亿英镑）的报复性关税。
市场波动性显著加剧
VIX恐慌指数近期剧烈波动，一度飙升至28后回落至26.6。值得注意的是，Cboe VIX期货曲线已进入倒挂状态，这一技术信号暗示市场可能已接近底部区域。
CPI数据成市场焦点
今晚即将公布的CPI数据将成为决定市场利率预期的关键因素。尽管市场已将美联储2024年降息预期从1次上调至4次，但1月CPI意外上行令市场对通胀放缓趋势产生疑虑，投资者普遍维持谨慎态度。
加密市场最新动态
在监管方面，SEC已推迟XRP、SOL、LTC、ADA、DOGE等加密ETF的审批至5月。同时，SEC将于3月21日召开加密监管圆桌会议，重点讨论加密资产分类及监管框架等关键议题。
机构投资者态度谨慎
比特币ETF市场出现1.54亿美元净流出，其中GBTC单日抛售641 BTC（价值5645万美元），这一现象表明机构投资者的谨慎情绪正在升温。
市场展望
投资者需重点关注以下因素：
- CPI数据是否证实通胀放缓趋势
- ETF审批进展
- 监管会议结果
这些因素都可能对加密市场的短期走势产生重大影响。
对投资者的影响分析：
1. 贸易战升级将加剧市场波动，投资者需加强风险管理
2. VIX指数倒挂暗示市场可能接近底部，长期投资者可关注布局机会
3. CPI数据将影响利率预期，投资者需调整资产配置策略
4. 加密市场监管不确定性增加，投资者应保持谨慎
5. 机构资金流出可能加剧市场波动，短线投资者需警惕风险
Previous article：
Hyperliquid财库短时亏损超400万美元Next article：
8个巨鲸钱包从Hyperliquid中提取1435万枚USDC7x24 Newsflash
16:40 2025-06-08
In the past 24 hours, the whole network has exploded over 90 million dollars, and the multi-empty double explosionAccording to Coinglass data, the total amount of cryptocurrency market liquidation in the past 24 hours reached 91.4591 million US dollars, of which, multiple orders were liquidated 50.0084 million US dollars, and empty orders were liquidated 50.0084 million US dollars.
ETH liquidated $2749.26 million, BTC liquidated $12.9448 million, and ANIME liquidated $5.8866 million. A total of 46,385 people were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with the largest single liquidated position on HTX's ETH-USDT ...
16:01 2025-06-08
On-chain capital flow today: Ethereum net inflow of $95 million, OP Mainnnet net net outflow of $62 millionAccording to Artemis data, today's Ethereum net inflow is $95 million, Bitcoin net inflow is $51 million; OP Mainnnet net outflow is $62 million, and Avalanche C-Chain net outflow is $44 million.
15:43 2025-06-08
OKX Wallet upgrades Fractal BRC-20 protocol service and is expected to return to normal in mid-to-late JuneAccording to the official announcement, OKX Wallet is upgrading the services of the Fractal BRC-20 protocol. During this period, the related services of Fractal BRC-20 are temporarily unavailable, and the affected services are expected to return to normal in mid-to-late June 2025. After the service upgrade is completed, the related assets of the Fractal BRC-20 protocol can be viewed and managed normally in the wallet.
15:09 2025-06-08
BTC breaks through $106,000The market shows that BTC has broken through $106,000 and is now quoted at $106,027.22, with a 24-hour increase of 0.54%. The market is volatile, so please do a good job in risk control.
14:42 2025-06-08
The US House of Representatives has introduced HR 3798 bill to promote the establishment of a national strategic bitcoin reserveU.S. Republican Congressman Tim Burchett introduced HR 3798, which aims to establish a national strategic bitcoin reserve and write it into federal law.
14:42 2025-06-08
Media: Proactively advertising to the public that stablecoins are being or appear to be being sold in Hong Kong also requires a licenseAccording to the "Daily Economic News", the Hong Kong Stablecoin Ordinance only allows designated licensed institutions to sell fiat stablecoins in Hong Kong, and only fiat stablecoins issued by licensed issuers can be sold to retail investors. In addition to the above situation, there is another "active promotion" situation, that is, even if you are not directly engaged in regulated stablecoin activities, if you actively advertise to the public in Hong Kong or other regions that you are or appe...
14:36 2025-06-08
A whale deposited 1 trillion PEPE worth 11.65 million USD into BinanceAccording to Onchain Lens, a whale deposited 1 trillion PEPE to Binance, worth 11.65 million US dollars, the whale held these PEPE for 21 days, initially withdrew 2.209 trillion PEPE from Binance, worth 27.68 million US dollars, and still holds 1.20 trillion PEPE (14 million US dollars).
14:09 2025-06-08
The probability of "Musk creating a new party this year" is tentatively reported at 16% on Polymarket.According to the official website data, Polymarket forecasts that the probability of "Musk creating a new party within this year" is 16%, and the probability of "Musk creating a new party by the end of June" is 5%.
These probabilities are down 5% and 2% respectively from yesterday.
14:00 2025-06-08
Cathie Wood supports Tesla stock: If you could only choose one stock to invest in, you would choose TSLA.Cathie Wood, who recently backed Tesla stock in an interview, said that if she could only choose one stock to invest in, she would choose to invest in TSLA. This is the convergence of our three platforms - robotics, energy storage and artificial intelligence. It won't stop at Robotaxis, and the future of humanoid robots will be much more than that. Our $2,600 PT (2030) has nothing to do with humanoid robots - we just think it will be an investment period. Musk retweeted this interview.
13:14 2025-06-08
Next week, there will be large unlocks of APT, STRK, IMX and other tokensAccording to Token Unlocks data, APT, STRK, IMX and other tokens will be unlocked in large quantities next week (the following are all Beijing time), including:
Aptos (APT) will unlock about 11.31 million tokens at 12 noon on June 12, with a ratio of 1.79% to the current circulation and a value of about $52.70 million;
Starknet (STRK) will unlock approximately 127 million tokens at 8 a.m. on June 15, representing 3.79% of the current amount in circulation and worth approximately $16.60 million.
...
12:56 2025-06-08
Airwallex CEO questions the practicality of stablecoins: difficult to replace traditional cross-border transfersOn June 8th, Jack Zhang, co-founder and CEO of Airwallex, posted on the X platform questioning the practical use of stablecoins. "Investors keep asking me about stablecoins and how it reduces foreign exchange fees; if you send money from USD to EUR and the recipient still needs to receive EUR at their bank, I don't see any way stablecoins can reduce fees - the cost of switching from stablecoins to receiving currencies is much higher than the foreign exchange interbank market. Crypto is a technol...
12:56 2025-06-08
Hyperliquid is approaching $3.40 billion in assetsAccording to DefiLlama data, Hyperliquid has currently crossed into assets (platform supports USDC, USDT) of $3.386 billion.
Hot News
Cryptocurrency Payback Calculator - InstructionsVitalik: "DAO" means "project", "official" means "scam"Backpack Exchange已面向英国用户开放其服务派盾：NIBI同名代币发生Rug Pull，损失约31.39万美元香港金管局推出稳定币发行人沙盒CIAN与Lido合作，在Base上推出wstETH Hyper-Staking VaultGate.io 3月储备金总额突破60亿美元，额外储备金超8亿美元Polyhedra Network已于3月12日16时完成ZK空投快照英FCA：不会反对加密资产相关ETN上市请求BTC流通市值突破1.4万亿美元，续创新高Space Nation将于3月底启动OIK代币空投
Related Recommendations
Cryptocurrency Payback Calculator - InstructionsBackpack Exchange已面向英国用户开放其服务派盾：NIBI同名代币发生Rug Pull，损失约31.39万美元香港金管局推出稳定币发行人沙盒CIAN与Lido合作，在Base上推出wstETH Hyper-Staking VaultGate.io 3月储备金总额突破60亿美元，额外储备金超8亿美元Polyhedra Network已于3月12日16时完成ZK空投快照英FCA：不会反对加密资产相关ETN上市请求BTC流通市值突破1.4万亿美元，续创新高Space Nation将于3月底启动OIK代币空投
